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State of play Brexit

Brexit

Brexit

It is important to highlight that a no-deal exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) should be averted. Nevertheless, the recent events and constant obstacles in the matter from the past months bring multiple “Brexit” scenarios in a titanic race against time and future predictable emergencies.

Since November 2018, the legal text of the agreement on UK withdrawal from the EU was approved by the negotiators appointed by either party. In addition, the EU leaders endorsed a political non-binding declaration embodying a framework for the future relationships.

However, the approval of the agreement in the UK Parliament was rejected. Consequently, a “no-deal Brexit” has been on the spot as a likely scenario. However, the UK government requested an extension of the negotiating period established under Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union (TEU) as introduced by the Lisbon Treaty. This request was approved by the European Council, extending the UK’s EU membership until 22nd May 2019, on condition that the UK Parliament would approve the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) by 29th March 2019. Something that never happened due to UK Parliament WA rejection (for the third time). This fact left the decision to the European Council, who settled 12th April 2019 as the new Brexit date.

On the 5th of April 2019 the UK government requested again a further extension of the mentioned period (Art.50 TUE). The 11th of April 2019 the European Council adopted the decision to extend article 50 period until 31st October 2019. Moreover, the UK must organize the EU elections if the WA is not ratified by 22nd May 2019. The European Council declared there will not be a reopening of the WA, and finally, the principle of sincere cooperation will apply to the UK pending its withdrawal.

Under the said circumstances we could have these scenarios:

  1. Ratification of Withdrawal Agreement fails: After October 31st UK becomes a third country.
  2. Withdrawal Agreement ratified by UK Parliament, then both parties could sign the agreement: The WA enters into force and the transition period starts.
  3. The UK revokes the withdrawal notification and remains in the EU.

 

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